Published GG2020 reports
Beyond a Global Deal – A UN+ Approach to Climate Governance
In this report, the GG2020 working group on climate change lays out its recommendations for the future of global climate governance. The fellows propose a governance framework that utilizes bottom-up approaches to climate protection in the absence of a global deal.
Beyond the Numbers – Strategies for Global Nuclear
The GG2020 working group on nuclear governance recommends approaches to nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament that qualify success as more than simply the number of nuclear weapons or nuclear states.
Facing the Challenges - Three Scenarios for Global Economic Governance in 2020
The GG2020 working group on global economic governance discusses three scenarios that depict global economic interaction in the year 2020, providing decision makers with a platform for asking better questions.
Working Group II - Global nuclear governance
Shanghai session
Berlin session
The fellows of the global nuclear governance working group used the time in-between the Berlin and Shanghai session to drive forward the development of their scenarios. One of the two scenarios describes a world in which the nuclear armament of Iran spells proliferation in – and beyond – the Middle East. In this world, the nuclear deterrent is central component in the security strategy of a growing number of states, and a group of countries proposes to replace the by now toothless Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty with an institutional framework for managing limited nuclear proliferation. The second scenario envisages a world in which close cooperation between the great powers leads to a significant reduction of nuclear arsenals. However, existing inequalities within the international system continue to grow rather than to decline, leading to the emergence of a new type of non-state actor seeking to acquire a nuclear bomb.
- Fellows of the working group on global nuclear governance
preparing the presentation of their scenarios on the first day
of the GG2020 Shanghai session.
The scenarios were tested and further developed throughout the Shanghai session. On the first day, the non-proliferation working group presented their scenarios to the entire GG2020 group to share their findings and to jointly look for blind spots and areas for fine tuning.
The working groups dedicated the following days to sharpening their scenarios and incorporating the feedback from the presentation into their work. The fellows faced the challenge of unpacking their scenarios and identifying a broad spectrum of actors from which they selected the most relevant ones for analysis. For the next step the fellows examined the characteristics of the relevant actors at the starting point of their scenarios followed by an in-depth discussion of the trajectories of each actor from now to the year 2020 and beyond.
- GG2020 Fellow Katrin Kinzelbach of
the global nuclear governance working
group presentating some of the
groups findings.
With the list of relevant actors in place the group turned their attention towards analyzing the changes in actor characteristics and relative influence during the course of the scenario. Specific attention was paid to the role that rising powers may play by 2020. The group also had in-depth discussions about which actors might be motivated, and under what circumstances, to take initiatives on non-proliferation without involving the United States. The fellows carefully thought through the plausibility of the scenarios and debated the events mentioned in them, providing a rich actor specific reading for each scenario and determining points of adjustments along the way.
At this point, Shen Dingli, Professor and Executive Vice Dean, Institute of International Studies and Founding Director, Program on Arms Control and Regional Security, Fudan University, joined the group for an afternoon of discussion and feedback on their ongoing work. His experience in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, Sino-US security studies and the non-proliferation regime enriched the fellow’s discussion and their understanding of China’s role in nuclear non-proliferation.
Based on the deepened scenarios, the fellows took a first cut at drawing implications from the actor analysis, focusing on counterintuitive findings and unexpected dynamics discovered through the scenario process. Before reconvening in Washington DC in January 2011 for the final GG2020 session, the fellows will sharpen their scenarios and further elaborate on the implications, starting to consolidate their insights towards fully fleshed out scenarios and the presentation of their findings.
