Working Group I - Mitigating CO2 emissions

Taking a first step towards this goal, the group started to explore the different factors that will influence the further course of climate governance and developing a deeper understanding of how these factors shape the present and might do so for the future. Connected through an intricate network of cross impacts, the factors form a complex system of interrelated effects. Depending on possible projections associated with these factors, the system reveals different directions into possible futures.

The working group faced the challenge to interpret and systemize a broad spectrum of different factors, ranging from possible developments of fossil fuel prices to the unity of the developing world at the climate negotiations table; from advances in and availability of green technologies to the credibility of scientific results; from the projected number of climate induced refugees to the outcome of the 2012 US presidential elections. The fellows gradually added layer by layer of complexity to their model, carefully thinking through what each new factor, each new connection does to the system. Step by step the fellows started to decipher the inherent logic of the system.

In their search for the underlying dynamics that determine the future of climate governance, the fellows were supported by Monica Arraya, expert for international climate politics at E3G (London), who joined the group for an afternoon of animated discussions. Her first hand account of the climate negotiations in Copenhagen as well as her perspective on current trends in international climate politics enriched the fellows system of factors.

The GG2020 fellows in this working group succeeded in structuring the diverse array of factors, reflecting their shared view on the logic of climate governance. As crucial players, the domestic and international climate politics of the US and China were located at the center of the model, connecting to the multilateral framework within the UNFCCC as well as bilateral and multilateral schemes outside the UNFCCC. This system changes under influence of two main categories of multiple factors, the economics of transition towards decarbonization as well as the development of beliefs, perceptions and attitudes towards climate change. Including all these dimensions into their model, the working group identified critical chains of effects that, depending on different factor projections, lead to very different outcomes. Around these fundamental dynamics, three basic scenarios emerged.

At this stage of the working process, the group had the chance to pay a visit to Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and one of the world’s leading climate scientists. The fellows seized the opportunity to present and discuss their findings with Professor Schellnhuber, who strongly supported most of the working group’s deductions and added some of his own observations and views, sharpening the group’s scenarios.

Untill the working group reconvenes in Shanghai in July 2010, the fellows will push the development of their scenarios, adding new ideas and adjusting old ones. In Shanghai, the fellows will use their refined model to track down the levers that can be used to adjust crucial parameters, ultimately moving the system of global climate governance into a direction that will keep our chance for escaping a global climate catastrophe alive.